If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. Bart Starr won MVP with only 13 completions. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. The Chiefs win San Francisco's three games based on last year's standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. All rights reserved. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has to commit to running the ball besides using Murray on designed carries, or else Arizona will experience the same second-half swoon as last year. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). New York Giants +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The market doesnt like the Giants, but they were 9-5 ATS as an underdog last year. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. What makes a great Super Bowl? If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. Adding Marvin Jones to a young receiving unit that already includes Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. The game may have been bad, but this is NFL history. This team just wasn't ready to win it all yet, but still a very good all-around team with a sneaky productive defense. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. Allowed 173 yards per game on the ground lmao this1dude88 Chiefs 4 yr. ago That defense became dominant Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. WebWell looking at it from a "in comparison to the rest of the league that year" perspective, as far as defenses that allowed the most points, these rank as the 3 worst defenses to win a Super Bowl: 2011 Giants were the 25th ranked defense 2006 Colts were the 23rd ranked defense 2009 Saints were the 20th ranked defense This game will be remembered for two plays: The surprise onside kick to start the second half and Tracy Porters game-sealing pick-6 of Manning. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). Their defense back in the day was shutting teams down and they had great leadership in Fran Tarkenton. This Baltimore Colts was coached by Don Shula and averaged 28.7 points per game in the '60s. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. This was a great Super Bowl, but can we stop saying the Titans were one yard short of winning it? Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. A.J. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. He had one season without Peyton and went 2-14 leading to his firing and the start of the Luck era. The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. Peyton Manning was on another level this season, leading his offense to score a jarring 37.9 points per game, but the team around him was lacking. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? 1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl? 20. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). But it wasn't always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. 25. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. Ill assume you didnt watch the From Devin Hester to an elite defense led by Brian Urlacher, this team earned their spot on the biggest stage. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Give them five years to become a dynasty. The Los Angeles Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. I did not mean to rhyme there. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense Sixth-round draft pickTom Brady took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback and led the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl title. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. Jalen Hurts will not pull a They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. Rookie head coaches and rookie quarterbacks don't typically generate Super Bowl contenders. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. There's talent on the Falcons, but they are such an unknown heading into 2021. Slightly. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | Ken Anderson led his team to 124. Twenty-two women have said in lawsuits that Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Houston would be much higher on this list if Deshaun Watson's future with the team wasn't uncertain. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. If Baker Mayfield improves from last season's campaign, the Browns will contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. That's right, a team with Jerry Rice had a running back gain more receiving yards. This year, theres a chance theyre 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys. The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. WebTechnically the truth. So their overall grade suffered. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. The NFL regular season begins in just days. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. The Broncos do have to see Mahomes and the Chiefs twice, but they play only four top-10 FPI teams and get the extra home game for being in the AFC. A special season in Tennessee could be in store. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. To show you how wildly that fluctuates, in those categories the year before, Miami ranked 29th, 24th, and 27th.. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. Obviously a dramatic ending helps, but that doesnt alway mean a great game. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. XFL Week 3 preview: Can AJ McCarron, Battlehawks continue their fourth-quarter heroics? In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. Ranked below are the 20 worst NFL players to win a Super Bowl since 2000. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! 2007 Giants, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, or the 2009 Saints, with a 25th overall defense, could say they were all the worst defensive teams to win a Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. Poor Bengal fans will never watch a 49ers game with a smile (unless they're losing). Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. The Chiefs rank No. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. Terrell Davis three-touchdown game won him MVP honors. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. FIFA World Cup - Best Goals from Every Angle, Draw for the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023, C.J. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Oh, if they only handed the ball off the Marshawn Lynch. The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). With an 11-2-1 record, this group was one of many Vikings teams that should have won the big game. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. But a lot of credit needs to be given to running backs Ickey Woods and James Brooks, who both combined for 1,997 yards and 29 touchdowns. Another Broncos blowout. They had a top 5 offense and defense. But hey, they did something right, they were in the Super Bowl. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. Philadelphia Eagles +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). Another dynasty toppled by Tom Brady, but the "Legion of Boom" should not be undersold. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. Same goes for this one. Three different QBs started six games. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. Teams that barely squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card berth have become frequent commodities on this list, so it only feels appropriate to include the first wild-card team to ever win the Super Bowl. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). W. 23-20. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels.