Winter 2022-23 Preliminary Forecast 5 months ago September 7, 2022 A slew of analogs is being used for the upcoming winter season. Besides the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we can see more snowfall potential over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. CPC Outlook for Winter 2022-23: The overall forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida for the upcoming winter is for a better chance of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall as can be seen in the Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook graphics below. For completeness, I will mention that there are other potential sources of seasonal predictability, such as stratospheric, cryosphere, land surface or radiative forcing variations, but sea surface temperature variations generally are the most important. Also, CPC data reveals an East Pacific MJO episode in January. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. Despite the headlines, the winter weather predictions from both publications have a lot of similarities this year. (Image credit: Getty images), Video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation and drought. Hello climate.gov administrator, You always provide in-depth analysis and understanding. The UK gets on average 23.7 days of snowfall or sleet a year, according to data recorded between 1981 and 2010. My calculation that follows confirms this suspicion. The Old Farmers Almanac is predicting a divided nation with harsh winter in the East and mild weather in the West. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. There appears to be a warming trend in our Octobers over the recent years, with many of them bringing milder than average spells.. Unfortunately, a dry winter is predicted for the Southwest states, which won't help the drought situation. All good scientific studies note their limitations, and this analysis carries some caveats that are familiar to most climate scientists. Maximum temperature 8C. Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. This set consists of 30 simulations, and since there are 21 winter La Nia events between 1951-2020, I have 30 x 21 = 630 simulations of December-January La Nia conditionsa much larger sample size than if I just relied on the 21 observed La Nia winters. This winter's total is a record for Bellemont but in 1948-49 there was 153.9 inches at the airport ..still have time to top that record since average March snowfall is about 15 inches, Submitted by Craig T on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 14:34. The southeastern United States snowfall is perhaps an unlikely scenario at first, but just one intense cold outbreak could bring some snowfall further far into the south. It's important to keep in mind that not every location in the Southwest has been wetter than normal lately. Thanks for your questions. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. South West England weather - Met Office The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. What AccuWeather's 2022-23 winter forecast says about Minnesota ), and I have seen that there are a few studies that point to processes around Antarctica that could be contributing. These temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4F warmer than normal. Drought development is expected to occur across the South-central and Southeastern U.S., while drought conditions are expected to improve across the Northwestern U.S. over the coming months. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. From February to April, below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Southwest and coastal portions of the Southeast, but areas including Texas may see a respite from less-than-normal snowfall and rainfall. 8/10: A new . Temperatures will likely fluctuate between cold and mild, north to south, but will probably average out around normal. The most common wind direction in the UK is south-westerly though, so more often than not we get relatively mild air from the Atlantic bringing rain, rather than this cold air from the north and east which often turns any rain to snow.. Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (DecemberJanuary). Conditions will be particularly cold through the middle of the month, with widespread frosts and a risk of wintry showers, even to low levels in some cases. air travelling from north to the south) bring the air straight from the Arctic and over a cold sea to reach the UK. Meet COP21 Education Ambassador Shannon Bartholomew! The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. Next, I tackled the noise part of the calculation, which represents the Southwest precipitation variations that are unrelated to the sea surface temperature patterns. Rains by Scott Yuknis. Here is the forecast for the coming days. Seasonal Forecast for February - April 2023. Thank you, Clara, for the kind words! Understanding what teleconnection patterns we can and cannot predict on these seasonal time scales remains a big research topic. NOAA Official precipitation outlook points: Also, we will keep you updated on other developing weather trends, so bookmark our page. Events were the coldest temps are in the central pacific and warmer temps in the east. Submitted by Matt on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 11:44. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. It shows colder temperature probabilities for most of the northern United States. Weather.coms official winter outlook like NOAAs and AccuWeathers calls for above-normal temperatures in the South, while far-northern parts of the continental United States manage to stay below average, these conditions being driven by La Nia. My question, regarding the un-forecast DEC/JAN 2022-23 is whether the heavy precipitation was contributed to by the unusual presence of warming near and east of the Dateline referred to by NOAA as "warm blob" NEP22A and NEP23A? Today's Forecast for Tucson Arizona - kgun9.com December-February: January-March: Places where precipitation was less than 100 percent of the 1991-2020 average are brown; places where precipitation was 300 percent or more than average are blue-green. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast. Farmers' Almanac predicts cold winter, with record-breaking temps In the graphic below by NOAA-Climate, you can see the average snowfall pattern for weak La Nina years, as expected for this Winter season. March came in like a lion, indeed. Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022 #3 Welcome to our Second Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022! This is can be seen in the NOAAs latest official Winter 2022/2023 temperature forecast for the United States. The Farmers Almanac says conditions in the Upper Midwest will be glacial, and it suggests there will be plenty of snow and chilly conditions for winter lovers to enjoy including the potential for a White Christmas. It's an event unprecedented in our lifetimes. Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. Today's Tucson weather forecast: March 1 The changes in the jet stream certainly have impacted conditions over the U.S. this winter. Water in Rillito River east of Swan Road and clouds from a clearing winter storm around the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson on Dec. 12, 2022. In the SPEAR simulations, I examined the relationship between the ensemble mean Southwest U.S. precipitation anomalies and the La Nina SST anomalies. Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. The UK winter weather forecast 2022/2023 I also like the idea that MJO may have been a factor, BTW I am not a weather scientist just a life long weather geek, Submitted by Craig T on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 20:15. To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson. A major weather divide is int he forecast. The rest of the United States and eastern Canada are expected to see less snowfall in the early spring. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). Jasmine Blackwell,jasmine.blackwell@noaa.gov, (202) 841-9184, Drought to persist in Great Plains, parts of West and expand, Audio: October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina. Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. These sorts of patterns occur in the simulations I described, but they are part of the "weather noise" that gets averaged out among the 30 simulations. Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. Based on the Farmer's Almanac winter 2022-2023 predictions for the upcoming chilly season, the report shows that . Submitted by Mohammad Al-khateeb on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 03:19, Submitted by Aaron on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 10:46, What do you think of the recent University of Washington study postulating that this kind of triple year La Nia event may become more common and could in fact be the temporary result of cooling in the Pacific Ocean due to increased melting of ice and snow in Antarctica?https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Submitted by Lois on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 11:22. Perreault said that temperature, mountain snow, and precipitation is forecast to be above normal. La Nina is a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean but impacts the global weather forecast. The Ohio winter 2022-2023 predictions are predicated on this being the second year for the current La Nina weather pattern. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. 1 Quote; Link to comment . New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, SST - ENSO Region, Monthly Difference from Average, El Nio-Southern Oscillation - Indicators and technical discussions, Detecting El Nio in Sea Surface Temperature Data. This results in 21 values covering all historical La Nias during the period for which the noise of chaotic weather variability has been largely averaged out. That's still down 45% from a year earlier, however. That's why Nat used model simulations to look at the relationships here, finding that there's no preferred pattern to the sea surface temperature for wet SW winters. Follow severe weather as it happens. Hourly. Although it's several months away yet, a typical La Nia winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according. Over the coming days, cold Arctic air will descend on the UK like a hoard of shoppers on a clothing store in the Boxing Day sales, plunging us into a period of frigid conditions that may well last right through the middle of December and into the run up to Christmas. Will it snow in the UK this year? Long-range weather forecast for We can also see more snowfall hinted in this run over southern Great Britain. This can be as low as 200ft or so above sea level on some days, the Met Office explains. The figure below shows that most (13 of 21) of the La Nias from 1951-2020 had below-average December-January precipitation in this region (1), although wet early winters during La Nia . According to Flagstaff NWS website they gave so far had 146.7" snow this winter which blows away the previous record. Above all thank you for the richness of the information but i take note that some (data simulation methods) may tend to under-estimate (under fit) and others may overestimate (over-fit) an ulterior assumption , choosing the best ( mathematical) simulation methods may sometimes tell a good tale even with the presence of short data window . The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. Fortunately, right on cue, the Farmers' Almanac has released its 2022/2023 winter weather forecast. If one expects a deterministic forecast (it WILL be wet or it WILL be dry), then both the forecaster and user will be disappointed quite often. On the other side of the country, temperatures in the Southwest and the Rockies are expected to be well above average. Regarding the "warm blobs" you mention, most studies suggest that extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies generally do not have a major impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, so I suspect that the two warm blobs you mention did not have a major impact on Southwest U.S. precipitation. If the response is linear and the normal response is dry, one would expect the wet La Nias to be more likely to be weak ones and the very dry La Nias to be more likely to be strong ones. Precipitation-wise, La Nina winters are usually drier over the southern United States. How harsh will winter be? I also agree that relying on ENSO indices for a seasonal forecast is a recipe for a busted forecast, particularly IF the forecast is not interpreted correctly. Of course, March can still be cold and usually provides snowfall. It also shows some snow scenarios over the eastern and southeastern United States. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.. Snow-covered field in Kansas. The figure above shows the high-minus-low precipitation average differences between these two groups. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. This is not too far from the ECMWF prediction, but we generally see more snowfall in the northern United States. AccuWeather 2022-2023 Canada winter forecast | AccuWeather However, this pattern may break down during the last third of the month, possibly heralding a return to milder, more unsettled weather. For this analysis, I am using simulations of monthly climate from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model called SPEAR, the same model that contributes seasonal forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), but here the experiment is designed to analyze the climate effects of the observed sea surface temperature evolution from 1951-2020 (4). NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). I am no scientist. How Colorado forecasts avalanche risks Thanks, Tom. Annual and monthly snow totals at MSP Airport since 2011-12. But looking at the March snow forecast image below, we can see most of Europe having a lower-than-normal end to the snow season. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). We will take a closer look at the weather influence that La Nina usually shows over North America, which is under a more direct influence. There are many patterns that influence U.S. weather, but only a few have a strong connection to slowly varying (and seasonally predictable) sea surface temperatures. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. By weather.com meteorologists October 13, 2022 At a Glance A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. La Nina usually forms during strong trade winds, which can tell us much about the state of global circulation. The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Remaining very mild. - 29 US states are under winter weather alerts as people brace for a winter storm expected to bring heavy snow . Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. 16 min read. In the East, the almanac predicts above-average snowfall for a vast area, from North Carolina to central New England to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Great Plains. Another meteorological winter is drawing to a close, though it feels like some of us in the East are still waiting for winter to arrive (not a single inch of snow here in central New Jersey so far!). Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button () there to see more of our, A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar Vortex and potentially impacting the weather in late-month and early Spring, Spring forecast 2023: The La Nina Winter pattern is forecast to extend as we head into Spring despite the breakdown of the cold ocean anomalies, The Coldest Air of 2023 Plunges from Canada into the United States, sending northern states into Deep Freeze and More Snow for Midwest in the coming days, A Major Winter Storm is Forecast to Snow Blanket Millions from Central Plains to Northeast U.S. through mid This Week, A strong Stratospheric Warming event is about to start, impacting the Polar Vortex as we head into the final month of the Winter Season.

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